May 20, 2022
2022 Federal Election Prediction
Words by Sebastian Andrew
Barring a major last-minute shock (it would have to be something pretty bad, think Anthony Albanese accidentally admitting on live tv that he eats live puppies) or an enormous error in polling, this time next week Anthony Albanese will be our prime-minister elect, and when the 47th parliament is sworn in, Labor will control both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Of 151 seats in the House, Labor will hold 82. The Coalition will hold 60. The crossbench will house 9.
Labor will gain fourteen of the following seats off the Coalition to get to this majority, which I admit, is larger than most are predicting–
- Pearce (Perth’s northern suburbs) and Swan (suburbs south of Perth River) in Western Australia.
- Boothby (Adelaide’s south) in South Australia.
- Chisholm (eastern Melbourne) and Higgins (south-east Melbourne) in Victoria. Labor will also gain the newly created seat of Hawke (outer-west Melbourne) which it holds on a notional margin of 10%.
- Bass (Launceston and northeast) in Tasmania.
- Bennelong (Sydney’s northwest), Reid (Sydney’s inner-west), and Robertson (Central Coast) in New South Wales.
- Brisbane (Brisbane CBD), Leichhardt (Cairns and Cape York), Longman (Brisbane’s northern suburbs), and Ryan (Brisbane’s western suburbs) in Queensland. Leichhardt is my gutsiest pick of all, given the popularity of incumbent Warren Entsch, but I suspect enthusiasm for climate action, the general cost of living, and Morrison’s unpopularity are enough to give Labor a narrow edge.
The Coalition will regain the seat of Hughes from the United Australia Party, and Dawson from One Nation.
Independents will gain the following three seats off the Coalition–
- Goldstein (Melbourne’s eastern bayside) in Victoria
- North Sydney (city of North Sydney) and Wentworth (Sydney’s inner-east) in New South Wales.
I struggled over calling the seats of Hasluck and Curtin (WA), Sturt (SA), Braddon (TAS), Deakin, Kooyong, Casey, and Nicholls (VIC), Page, Lindsay, Banks, and Parramatta (NSW). I see these seats as either knife-edge or slightly tilting towards the Coalition. Is it possible for some of these seats go the other way? Yes. Is it likely? Also yes. But as of right now I have to call them for the Coalition.
I’ve also created an interactive map of my predicted outcome, with flips highlighted, which can be found by clicking on this link: https://www.yapms.com/app/?u=sj&m=MjAyMiBPTiBESVQgRklOQUwgUFJFRElDVElPTg==
In the Senate, I expect the biggest winners to be the Greens. Greens hold onto all their current senators and gain one in each state where there’s no incumbent (with the two territories being the exception). Labor gains in three states at the expense of the Coalition.
History is also made because for the first time, one of the two territories will elect a non-major party senator. Historically, the high quota of 33% has ensured that no one party can gain two seats and both major parties poll well enough to gain one. However, former rugby union player and social activist David Pocock has surged in polls and I predict he will overtake incumbent ACT Liberal senator Zed Seselja through Green and Independent preferences.
Senate by state:
- Western Australia — Three Labor (+1), two Liberal (-1), one Green
- South Australia — Three Labor (+1), two Liberal, one Green
- Northern Territory — One Labor, one Country Liberal
- Tasmania — Two Labor, two Liberal (-1), one Green, one Lambie Network (+1)
- Victoria — Three Labor (+1), two Liberal (-1), one Green
- New South Wales — Two Labor (-1), three Liberal, one Green
- Australian Capital Territory — One Labor, one Pocock (+1)
- Queensland — Two Labor, two Liberal National (-1), one Green (+1), one Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
This would create a senate breakdown of:
- Labor — 28 (+2)
- Coalition — 31 (-4)
- Greens — 12 (+3)
- One Nation — 2 (0)
- Lambie Network — 2 (+1)
- Independent — 1 (+1)
To pass legislation, a party needs 39 votes, and both Labor and the Coalition fall far short of this. However, I would expect Labor to be able to pass legislation with support of the Greens, as their numbers give Labor 40 votes in the Senate.
As for an after-election prediction, I believe Morrison is out as leader. The Liberal party has long realized the negative drag of his personal unpopularity, and they will waste no time ditching him for someone less unpopular. Frydenberg, having likely just scraped by, will be out (I doubt Liberals will want a leader holding a seat by a margin of 1% or less). Dutton is the most likely outcome, however, due to this and the loss of moderates at the election, the caucus will skew more conservative. But regardless of who Liberals choose, they’ll spend the next three years sitting on the other side of the House.
